Selected research papers on Australian demography

Selected research papers on Australian demography are listed below. A more complete set of my research outputs can be found here on ResearchGate.

The rapid growth of Australia’s advanced age population

This paper showed that Australia's population at the highest ages, especially in the nonagenarian (ages 90-99) and centenarian (ages 100 and above) age groups, is growing rapidly. The largest contributor to the growth of this population is improved survival, especially across the older age groups.

Local area estimates and patterns of Australia’s sexual minority population

This study, published in Applied Spatial Analysis & Policy, described local area estimates of the sexual minority population of Australia. The estimates were calculated using national survey data as well as census data on same-sex couples.

A model for preparing local area population forecasts with little data

This paper in Demographic Research proposes a method for producing local area population forecasts by sex and age group using relatively little input data. Importantly, it does not require any migration data, but still applies a model which projects inward and outward migration flows. The model was tested on SA3 areas of Australia and shown to produce reasonable forecasts.

The spatial pattern of birth seasonality in Australia

This study examined the geographical variation in the seasonality of births across Australia. Birth seasonality was found to be moderate in extent, but geographically clustered. In the north and central parts of Australia, births are above-average early in the year, while in the southeast of the country they are above-average in September and October.

Evaluation of simple methods for regional mortality forecasts

This study evaluated eight simple methods for regional and local mortality forecasts. The methods were evaluated not just in terms of forecast accuracy, but also how they performed in practical terms (such as input data requirements, ease of calculation, plausibility of forecast death rates, etc.). The evaluation was undertaken using mortality forecasts prepared for SA4 regions of Australia.

Visualising the demographic factors which shape population age structure

This paper presented a 'components-of-change' population pyramid as a way of understanding how births, deaths and migration shape a population's age structure. Included as examples are some population pyramids for Australia and a couple of states and territories.