LOCALPOP demographic projections program
LOCALPOP is a new demographic projections program for UK local authorities. It creates population and household projections for a council plus projections for a flexible number of small areas by sex and single years of age. It has similar features to the STATEPOP program for Australia but has been designed specifically for UK councils and to use UK input data.
Key features
LOCALPOP produces population projections for a council and constituent small areas by sex and single years of age for 30th June in each year of the chosen projection horizon
It also produces annual projections of the future number of households for the council and small areas
The program uses robust projection methods, including the bi-regional cohort-component model (based on the movement migration population accounting framework) and the household representative rate household projection model
It includes an innovative synthetic migration estimation routine which creates high-quality age-specific migration rates from very little user-supplied input data, avoiding a lengthy and complex migration data preparation and smoothing process
It creates age-specific death rates from life expectancy assumptions (user-supplied) and a mortality surface of model life tables (internal to the program), again avoiding a time-consuming and difficult data preparation process
Projection assumptions and input data are selected and prepared in a series of steps in an Excel workbook.
The workbook is supplied with all necessary input data and a default set of projection assumptions
The LOCALPOP package includes email, phone or zoom support for the first year.
Projection outputs
In terms of projection outputs, the program produces:
(1) summary output files of populations by sex (females, males, and persons) and age group, summary demographic components (total births, deaths and migration flows), and median age; plus several graphs of past and projected populations and demographic components
(2) detailed output files of all projected populations and demographic components by sex and single years of age for every year of the projection horizon
(3) projected rates of fertility, mortality and migration by sex and single years of age (including local area rates after constraining to the council-level projections)
(4) household output files which contain projections of the number of households, average household size, and persons by living arrangement.
Please contact Tom Wilson at the email address below for an online demonstration and pricing details.
